The Impermanence of Alliances and the Non-Ideological Nature of Multipolarity
Dr. Christopher Mott
Abstract
This article interrogates the widespread contemporary assumption that international alliances can be “permanent” by situating current geopolitical turbulence within the longer historical patterns of multipolarity. Dr. Christopher Mott argues that the post–Cold War “liberal international order” represented a brief and atypical unipolar interlude whose collapse has re-exposed the inherent impermanence of security arrangements. Drawing on realist theory and historical case studies — including the dissolution of the U.S–French alliance in the 1790s and the Sino-Soviet Split — Mott illustrates how ideological affinities and claims to shared values routinely fail to override divergent material interests, geographic pressures, and shifting power balances. He contends that the contemporary unraveling of U.S. alliance structures, accelerated by costly post-9/11 wars, economic decline, and the rise of new great and middle powers, reflects a reversion to the normal condition of international anarchy. Within this context, Mott highlights the fragility of even the most sacralized partnerships, including the U.S–Israel relationship, as domestic opinion and strategic incentives evolve. The article concludes that the return to multipolarity renders “permanent alliances” untenable, requiring a recalibration of U.S. grand strategy grounded in historical realism rather than ideological nostalgia.
Keywords
Multipolarity, Liberal international order, U.S. foreign policy, Alliance fragility, Realism (IR theory), Cold-War, Sino-Soviet Split, U.S. hegemony, Dr. Christopher Mott
